Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Payam Noor University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography
2
Islamic Azad University, Mashhad Branch
Abstract
Population aging is one of the most significant demographic transformations of the twenty-first century, with far-reaching implications for spatial planning, healthcare systems, social service provision, and urban governance, particularly within metropolitan regions. The Tehran Metropolitan Region, encompassing Tehran and Alborz Provinces, provides an appropriate setting for examining the spatial patterns of population aging due to its high population concentration, pronounced spatial inequalities, and dynamic migration flows. This study aims to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of population aging and to explain its spatial distribution patterns across the counties of the region during 2006, 2016, and the projected year 2024.The research adopts a descriptive–analytical approach based on data obtained from the National Population and Housing Censuses, official population estimates, and administrative boundary datasets. To ensure spatial consistency, all data were harmonized according to the most recent county boundaries and subsequently processed and analyzed using ArcGIS Pro. The proportion of the population aged 65 years and over was employed as the primary indicator of population aging. Spatial analytical techniques, including Global Moran’s I, Local Moran’s I (LISA), the Geographic Detector model, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), were applied to investigate spatial patterns and identify the determinants of population aging.The findings indicate that population aging has increased across all counties within the metropolitan region, although the magnitude and spatial distribution of this trend vary considerably. The highest concentrations of older adults were observed in the counties of Tehran and Karaj, whereas the peripheral counties, despite maintaining relatively younger age structures, have experienced a rapidly accelerating aging process. Spatial analyses further confirmed the presence of significant positive spatial autocorrelation and clustered patterns of population aging. Moreover, the influence of demographic, migration-related, and socioeconomic factors on population aging exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity across the study area.These findings underscore the necessity of adopting spatially differentiated planning strategies at the county level, promoting the equitable distribution of healthcare and long-term care services, enhancing age-friendly urban environments, and ensuring a more balanced allocation of public resources. Such measures are essential for achieving sustainable management of population aging in the Tehran Metropolitan Region.
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