Assessment of the Risk for Mashhad Water Supply Options and Specifying Their Priorities

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

Today, the water supply for various purposes in many parts of the world and especially in Iran is one of the main challenges that planners are facing with. On this basis, water supply from different locations and implementation of different options have been the current strategies to resolve this challenge along with the non- structural management and allocated a large amount of credits and national budgets to itself. In this paper, the challenges and opportunities of Mashhad water supply schemes have been investigated as a case study  and Also an integrated approach to risk assessment has been provided.For this purpose, in the first part of this article, Based on brainstorming method, risk factors in Mashhad water supply options were studied and the average risk of each option has been calculated.Then in the second part, Based on the amplitude, the possibility of risks was calculated for all risk options. The results showed, although the lowest average amount of risk is associated with the option of transferring water from Hezar Masjed, but from the view point  of the experts, the option of wastewater transmission from West Mashhad has a lower risk domain possibility other options. In fact, the results show that using domain possibility of risk to prioritize options (managerial decisions) can be very helpful. Finally different options based on the finished project cost parameter, the volume of water transmission of each project, risk and coefficient of water recycling are prioritized again.

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References

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Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement
Volume 7, Issue 22 - Serial Number 22
February 2017
Pages 191-206

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  • Receive Date: 27 February 2017
  • Accept Date: 27 February 2017

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