Future Study of the Role of Population Structures on Urban Land Use Changes in Ahvaz Metropolis

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD student in geography and urban planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.

3 Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.

Abstract

One of the most basic principles of urban planning and management is to pay attention to the changes and transformations of the population and to know enough about its population structure. Considering that the effect of historical developments and social, political and economic factors on the balance of the population structure is not the same in all parts of the city, the city will face spatial changes in the population structure of urban areas. This issue has led to the formation of different needs among urban areas and the change of urban land use. The aim of the current research is to evaluate the role of population structures on urban land use changes in Ahvaz metropolis. In terms of practical purpose, in terms of descriptive-analytical nature and in terms of method, the present research is a combination of library and survey methods and is based on future research approach. The scope of the research was the city of Ahvaz. The statistical population of this research is 40 people of population and urban land use experts. For data analysis, the Delphi method, the cross-effects matrix (MICMAC) was used. The findings of the research showed that among the 39 main factors affecting the role of population structures on urban land use changes, 14 variables are known as key and influential. that these variables have the most influence and the least influence on the future development of the role of population structures and urban land use changes in Ahvaz city. Also, the results showed that in terms of the direct influence of variables such as immigration with a score of 71, social welfare and population density with scores of 63 and 61, and the variables that have an indirect effect on the population structure and urban land use change are immigration, population density and social welfare, respectively. They are located in the first to third positions. 

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement
Volume 13, Issue 49
December 2023
Pages 33-64

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History

  • Receive Date: 21 July 2023
  • Revise Date: 15 November 2023
  • Accept Date: 28 November 2023

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