Assessment of Optimal Climatic Comfort Indices and Future Projections of Heat Stress in Zahedan: A Strategic Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Master of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, zahedan, Iran.

2 Mahmood Khosravi, Professor in Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, zahedan, Iran.

3 Postdoctoral researcher in Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, University of Tehran, Teheran, Iran.

Abstract

Heat stress during warm seasons exposes many people to the risk of heat stroke and other heat-related effects. The objective of this study is to develop effective strategies to enhance urban resilience in Zahedan. This can be achieved by conducting a comprehensive evaluation of heat stress indices and modelling climate change with the aim of gaining a deeper understanding of the interactions between climatic and urban factors. The climate parameters required for calculating the indices for the observation period (1985-2014) were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The daily minimum and maximum temperature outputs of the three models CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, and MIROC6 were also obtained from the ESGF website for future simulations (2015-2099) under two scenarios: SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. To select the optimal heat stress index, the values of various indices were first calculated, and then the appropriate index was determined based on the importance of the relative weight. The accuracy and efficiency of the selected GCMs were evaluated using a Taylor diagram and the models were corrected using the variance scaling method (VARI). The results showed that although the bioclimatic indices provided relatively similar conditions for heat stress in Zahedan, they were significantly different from the other parameters because of the relative importance of the two parameters, air temperature and relative humidity, with relative weights of 0.568 and 0.409, respectively. Therefore, the DI Thom, DI Mistry, and MDI indices calculated based on these two parameters were selected as desirable indices for determining heat stress in the study area because of their lower standard deviations and higher relative weights. The results of the multi-model ensembles also showed that the increasing trend of temperature in the study area until the end of 2099 under the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 was significant with the value of Z-Mann-Kendall 9.68 and 12.21 (maximum temperature), 8.3 and 11.47 (minimum temperature) at 0.99 confidence level. According to the projection of the DI index, the highest increasing trend of this index is related to the months of November, December, and March, with values increasing by 4.4, 4.1, and 3.5 degrees Celsius, respectively, in the period 2066-2099 compared to the base period. The findings of this study can be employed in the formulation of urban development plans and the design of climate-responsive urban spaces to mitigate the adverse effects of global warming on the comfort of Zahedan residents.

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References

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Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement
Volume 15, Issue 54
March 2025
Pages 1-32

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  • Receive Date: 09 December 2024
  • Accept Date: 12 January 2025

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