Identifying Key Factors Affecting Regional Development with a Foresight Approach (Case Study: Kermansha Province)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor of Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran.

2 M.S. Student of Geography and Urban Planning, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran.

Abstract

Regional planning is defined as a collaborative effort for policy-making, organizing, exploiting, and optimally using regional resources and potentials, in accordance with the needs and priorities, in order to raise the standard of living of the people of the region. The aim of the present study, in addition to identifying the effective factors and key drivers in the development of Kermanshah Province, is to identify and analyze the relationships between these factors with a futures approach and identify and analyze possible and desirable scenarios in the development of the province. Futures techniques, including the Delphi technique, structural interaction analysis, and scenario writing, were used to analyze and process the data. To collect the required data, 38 factors and variables affecting the development of the province in the five dimensions of regional development (political, socio-cultural, economic, managerial, and natural) were extracted in the design of a researcher-made questionnaire. In the next stage, using the mutual effects technique (structural analysis method), the variables were scored and analyzed in the MICMA software environment. Finally, the driving and key factors of regional development were selected according to the impact and impactability score. The results of the ranking of variables and drivers effective in the development of Kermanshah province showed that the variables: low human development indicators, justice-centered service and promotion of human resources, unemployment growth rate, infrastructure and tourism development services (nature tourism, religious, sacred defense, etc.), relations with foreign neighbors (reciprocity-cooperation), improving border security in cooperation with neighboring provinces bordering Iraq, the existence of potentials of the border economy, the province's relative advantages in economic fields, especially oil, gas, and commerce, are the 8 variables that have obtained the highest scores. Also, the variable of low human development indicators and improving border security in cooperation with neighboring provinces bordering Iraq have been selected as the most effective drivers. Overall, the results of the Wizard scenario writing have shown that there are 2 strong scenarios, 21 plausible scenarios, and 68 weak scenarios for the development of Kermanshah province.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Abdoli, Sh., Habib, F., Babazadeh, M (2018) Making spatial development scenario for south of Bushehr province, Iran, based on strategic foresight, Journal of Environment Development Sustain, Vol.20, Pp.1293–1309. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10668-017-9940-x
Ahmadi, H., and Rezaei Shahabi, R. (2019). Regional planning, basics and theories, Rasht: Gilan University Press. (In Persian).
Asayesh, H. (2009). Principles and methods of regional planning, 9th edition, Payam Noor University Publications. (In Persian).
Apostolache, M. A. (2014). Regional development in Romania–from regulations to practice, Procedia Economics and Finance, 8, 35-41.https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00059-8
Azari, M., Fani, Z., Kozehgar, k, L., Tavakoli, J., Tashehkaboud, A (2021). Investigating the role of key drivers in land use changes and urban spatial developments with a futures research approach (case study: District 12 of Tehran), Journal of Spatial Planning and Arrangement, 2 (25), 121-144. (In Persian). https://www.magiran.com/p2297143
Azis, I.J. (2020). Regional Development and Noneconomic Factors, International Encyclopedia of Human Geography (Second Edition), 269-274.https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-102295-5.10117-9
Bagheri, B; Masoumi, M; & Nazmfar, H. (2023). Identifying Key Factors Affecting Regional Development with a Foresight Approach (Case study: Ardabil province).Geography and Development, 21 (72), 142-165, (In Pearsian).https://doi.org/10.22111/GDIJ.2023.43141.3428
Dadashpoor,H., Velashi, M (2024). Key Factors Affecting Sustainable Spatial Development at Mazandaran Province on the horizon of 2031, Journal of Town & Country Planning, 16(1), 1-17. (In Persian). ttps://doi.org/10.22059/JTCP.2023.348581.670350
Darabi, S., Fanni, Z (2021). Identifying influential factors and key drivers in regional development with a foresight approach in Ilam Province, Journal of Geography and Urban Planning Chashmandaz-E-Zagros, 13(47), 119-137. (In Persian). https://sanad.iau.ir/en/Journal/IssueDetails/42145
Deng, X., Liang, L., Wu, F., Wang, Z., & He, S. (2022). A review of the balance of regional development in China from the perspective of development geography. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 32(1), 3- 22. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11442-021-1930-0
Dixon, T. J., Karuri-Sebina, G., Ravetz, J., & Tewdwr-Jones, M. (2023). Re-imagining the future: city region foresight and visioning in an era of fragmented governance. Regional Studies, Geographic Planning of Space Quaterly Journal, 57(4), 609-616.  https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00343404.2022.2076825
Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2015). Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. Futures, 73, 100-111.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010
Haegeman, K., Spiesberger, M., Könnölä, T (2017). Evaluating foresight in transnational research programming, Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.115, Pp.313-326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.07.017
Jovovic, R., Draskovic, M., Delibasic, M., & Jovovic, M (2017). The concept of sustainable regional development – institutional aspects, policies and prospects, Journal of International Studies, 10(1), 255-266. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2017/10-1/18
Kamousi, J.,  Asghari, H., Poursheykhian, A.L., Hasanimehr, S(2022). Analysis of Sustainable Development Guidelines & Challenges with Future Trending Survey (Case Study: ARAS Free Region), Journal of Regional Planning, 11(44), 106-118. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.30495/JZPM.2022.4068
Komissarova, M.A., Kulikov, M.M., Afanasiev, M.M., Guzenko, N.V (2020). The Foresight Methodology in Strategic Planning at Regional Level, International Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Volume VIII, Special Issue 1. https://ijeba.com/journal/506
Mithun, M. Z. (2021). Regional development planning and disparity in Bangladesh. E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics, 11(1), 10-20.http://dx.doi.org/10.18685/EJBME(11)1_EJBME-20-013
Niu, N., Liu, X., Jin, H., Ye, X., Liu, Y., Li, X. Li, S. (2017). Integrating multi-source big data to infer building functions. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 31(9), 1871–1890. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2017.1325489
Rahnama, M.R., Shakarami, K., Abbasi, H (2018). Identifying and Analyzing the Influence of Driving Forces on the Regional Development of Alborz Province with the Scenario-Based Planning Approach ,Journal of Town & Country Planning, 10(1), 139-166. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22059/JTCP.2018.254262.669854
Rana, S., Kiminami, L., Furuzawa, S. (2022). Literature Review on Regional Development, Entrepreneurship, Social Innovation and Disaster Risk Management. In: Entrepreneurship and Social Innovation for Sustainability. SpringerBriefs in Economics. Springer, Singapore, 9- 18.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7115-0-2
Salaavarzi. M., Sheikhi, H., Goldosti. Z (2021). Identifying and analysis of factors affecting urban development with a futuristic approach (Case study: Ilam city), Journal of Human Geography Research Quarterly, 53(4), 1491-1508. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22059/JHGR.2021.303319.1008124
Saffaee Pour, M., Moradi, H (2023). Identifying key drivers affecting the future of religious tourism development in Mehran City, Quarterly Journal of Future Cities Perspectives, Journal of Feature Cities Studies Vision, 3(15), 103-124. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.61186/jvfc.4.3.103
Safaeipour, Masoud, Aryanejad, Nahid (2023), Futures Studies: Key Factors Affecting Urban Development, Case Study: Dezful City, Iranian Bi-Quarterly Journal of Futures Studies, Volume 8, Issue 2, pp.382-344. (In Persian). https://journals.ikiu.ac.ir/article_3417.html
Sedbeigi, S.,  Mousapour Miyandehi,P.,  Mollania Jolodar, Sh., Malmir, M (2022). Identifying the key factors of Urban Development with a Futures Approach (Case Study: Sari City), Journal of Studies Human Settlement Planning, 17(1), 89-106. (In Persian). https://srb.sanad.iau.ir/en/Article/1032201
Tavakoli, J., Godarzi, V., Sammadi, R (2017). On the Analysis of the Regional Development of Markazi Province Using Multi-Criteria Techniques to Achieve Balanced Development, Journal of Human Settlement Planning Studies, 2(12), 285-299. (In Pearsian). https://sanad.iau.ir/en/Journal/jshsp/Issue/45548
Wiebe, K., & Gotor, E. (2023). Foresight Partnership Forum: Forum report. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140230
Xi, G. L., Zhen, F., & Chang, E. Y. (2016). Measuring urban space of flows in informationera: Empirical evidence from Nanjing, China. International Review for Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development, 4(4), 42–57.https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1390001205504617216
Zare Ahmadabadi, H.,  Akhundzadeh, M. R., Saffari Darberazi,A (2022). Modelling Area of Innovation for University of Tehran to become an entrepreneurial university, Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 49, 73-95. (In Pearsian). https://doi.org/10.22034/SMSJ.2022.130604
Zali. N., Regional Foresight Redefining Regional Planning Process from the View of Futures Studies, Journal of Iran Futures Studies, 4(1), 263-288. (In Pearsian). https://doi.org/10.30479/JFS.2019.9822.1033
Ziari, K., and Mohammadi, A. (2016). Regional development management with an emphasis on Iran, Tehran University Press. (In Persian).
Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement
Volume 15, Issue 54
March 2025
Pages 65-90

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 24 October 2024
  • Revise Date: 01 January 2025
  • Accept Date: 05 January 2025

Share

How to cite

Statistics