Investigating the Effect of Economic Fluctuations on the Urban Population Growth Rate of Iran’s Provinces

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran

2 PhD, Economic Expert, South Khorasan Economic and Finance Department, Birjand, Iran.

Abstract

In recent years, the population growth rate in Iran has followed a declining trend—a phenomenon that appears to have been shaped by a combination of economic, social, and cultural factors. One of the influential factors in this trend is the severe fluctuation of economic variables such as exchange rate, inflation, household income, economic growth, and income inequality, which can affect household decisions regarding marriage and childbearing through rising living costs and increasing uncertainty about the future. The present study aims to examine the effect of economic fluctuations on the urban population growth rate of Iran’s provinces during the period 1997 to 2022, using the Bayesian Panel VAR (Vector Autoregression) model. The findings indicate that inflation and the Gini coefficient have the most significant long-term negative effects on urban population growth. The exchange rate also shows a negative and relatively significant effect, while economic growth has a positive but limited impact. Despite its theoretical importance, household income is found to be the least influential variable among the factors examined in this study. These results indicate that the impact of economic variables on demographic changes depends on structural, regional, and institutional factors, and a uniform effect across all regions of the country cannot be assumed. Therefore, in demographic policymaking, considering local contexts alongside economic indicators is an undeniable necessity.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement
Volume 15, Issue 55
June 2025
Pages 217-250

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History

  • Receive Date: 11 January 2025
  • Revise Date: 17 April 2025
  • Accept Date: 10 May 2025

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