A Novel Framework for Flood Risk Assessment: Integrating the Analytical Hierarchy Process and Sensitivity Analysis in Hamidiyeh City

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

2 PhD Student in Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

Abstract

The study of resilience in riparian cities like Hamidiyeh, which are directly exposed to the risk of river overflow, is vital due to the intensification of floods resulting from urbanization and climate change. This research aims to enhance the city's capacity to cope with and mitigate the negative impacts of flooding by conducting a flood risk assessment in Hamidiyeh County. To this end, a novel framework was developed, integrating a GIS-based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) multi-criteria decision-making model with an analysis of indicator collinearity, weight sensitivity analysis, and multivariate correlation analysis. Within this approach, fifteen independent (non-collinear) indicators were combined to identify potential areas of flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk. The results indicate that over 25% of the total county area is classified under high and very high flood hazard. Furthermore, 80% of Hamidiyeh City's urban fabric falls into the medium to very high-risk zone. The flood hazard map demonstrated high accuracy and reliability, with a ROC-AUC (Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under Curve) exceeding 90% and MSE (Mean Squared Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) values below 40%. The sensitivity analysis performed in this study revealed the significant role of the indicators and provides a basis for future research. This robust and validated model offers reliable results that contribute to sustainable flood management, and its strategies are transferable to similar regions. 

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement
Volume 15, Issue 57
November 2025
Pages 169-224

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  • Receive Date: 27 February 2025
  • Revise Date: 31 August 2025
  • Accept Date: 13 October 2025

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