چهارچوبی نوین جهت ارزیابی ریسک سیل: تلفیق فرآیند تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی و تحلیل حساسیت در شهر حمیدیه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

مطالعة تاب‌آوری شهرهای حاشیة رودخانه نظیر حمیدیه که مستقیماً در معرض خطر طغیان قراردارند، به­دلیل تشدید سیلاب‌ها ناشی از شهرنشینی و تغییرات اقلیمی، حیاتی است. این پژوهش با هدف افزایش ظرفیت شهر در مقابله با سیل و کاهش اثرات منفی آن، به ارزیابی ریسک سیل در شهرستان حمیدیه می‌پردازد. بدین­منظور، یک چهارچوب نوین با تلفیق مدل تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره AHP مبتنی بر GIS با تحلیل هم‌خطی شاخص‌ها، تحلیل حساسیت وزن‌ها و تحلیل همبستگی چندمتغیره توسعه یافت. در این رویکرد، ۱۵ شاخص مستقل (بدون چندخطی) برای شناسایی مناطق بالقوة خطر، آسیب‌پذیری و ریسک سیل ترکیب شدند. نتایج نشان­داد که بیش از ۲۵ درصد از کل مساحت شهرستان در سطح خطر سیل بالا و بسیار بالا قرار دارد. همچنین، ۸۰ درصد بافت شهری حمیدیه در ناحیة ریسک متوسط تا بسیار بالا طبقه‌بندی می‌شود. نقشة مناطق با خطر سیل با ROC-AUC بالای ۹۰ درصد و مقادیر MSE و RMSE کمتر از ۴۰ درصد، دقت و قابلیت اطمینان بالایی را نشان­می‌دهد. تحلیل حساسیت در این پژوهش، نقش مهم شاخص‌ها را آشکار ساخته و زمینه را برای تحقیقات آتی فراهم می‌کند. این مدل قوی و معتبر، نتایج قابل اتکایی ارائه­می‌دهد که به مدیریت پایدار سیل کمک کرده و استراتژی‌های آن در مناطق مشابه قابل استفاده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

A Novel Framework for Flood Risk Assessment: Integrating the Analytical Hierarchy Process and Sensitivity Analysis in Hamidiyeh City

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeed Maleki 1
  • Mahmud Abiyat 2
1 Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
2 PhD Student in Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The study of resilience in riparian cities like Hamidiyeh, which are directly exposed to the risk of river overflow, is vital due to the intensification of floods resulting from urbanization and climate change. This research aims to enhance the city's capacity to cope with and mitigate the negative impacts of flooding by conducting a flood risk assessment in Hamidiyeh County. To this end, a novel framework was developed, integrating a GIS-based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) multi-criteria decision-making model with an analysis of indicator collinearity, weight sensitivity analysis, and multivariate correlation analysis. Within this approach, fifteen independent (non-collinear) indicators were combined to identify potential areas of flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk. The results indicate that over 25% of the total county area is classified under high and very high flood hazard. Furthermore, 80% of Hamidiyeh City's urban fabric falls into the medium to very high-risk zone. The flood hazard map demonstrated high accuracy and reliability, with a ROC-AUC (Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under Curve) exceeding 90% and MSE (Mean Squared Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) values below 40%. The sensitivity analysis performed in this study revealed the significant role of the indicators and provides a basis for future research. This robust and validated model offers reliable results that contribute to sustainable flood management, and its strategies are transferable to similar regions. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Vulnerability
  • Flood
  • Urbanization
  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • ROC-AUC
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